The climate war

THOSE who keep in touch with Hollywood science-fiction movies know about the film "Star Wars," and worry about the earth being attacked by aliens.




By analysing different wars over the last two decades, many political analysts came to a consensus that they were for establishing control over valuable natural resources such as oil, fresh water etc. to secure future consumption of mighty nations in the prevailing or upcoming climate contingencies. Therefore, we can define these wars as "Climate Wars."


Like other wars, climate war is not confined to only competing countries or regions. It affects all human beings, regardless of race, caste, ethnicity, sex and level of income, and confronts humanity with the threat of extinction. Though the world is trying to analyse climate change from different aspects, its security dimension is most often camouflaged by political or economic discussions.


Many climate scientists claim that the present climate risk is creating new kinds of security threats to our essential life-supporting elements as well as compounding the existing social and political tension within a country and between countries, as resources and safe places become scarcer, and disasters destroy livelihoods, increasing the number of migrants and refugees.


Global warming, the main causal factor for climate change, will present cross-linked multiple security aspects in the upcoming decades, such as decreasing food production, unavailability of fresh water, increased coastal hazards, mass migration, diseases, and conflicts for energy, a report titled "The Age of Consequences: The foreign policy and national security implications because of climate change," argues.


Though the extent of climate change remains uncertain, it not only hinders human development and environmental conservation, but also poses a major threat to human security with increased frequency of extreme weather events like floods, cyclones and droughts that are degrading socio-economic conditions across the world, particularly in poor and developing countries.


Because of increased temperature and drought, two consequences of climate change, agriculture production has declined in many parts of the globe, especially in the tropics where many developing countries are located.


The most recent food crisis and price hikes of rice, wheat and maize, has adversely affected the world's poorest parts. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that low agricultural productivity and worldwide food price have affected more than 800 million undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa and some parts of Asia.


As an agrarian economy, food crisis has also increased in Bangladesh. Most of our agriculture production is highly dependent on monsoon rain that accounts for nearly 90% of annual precipitation. Any kind of change in monsoon rain is likely to exacerbate the food crisis.


Freshwater resources constitute about 2.5% of world water resources, but almost two-thirds of those are in inaccessible forms such as glaciers and permanent snow packs (the Antarctica alone has 60% of total world water resources).


Climate change also influences freshwater availability through altering precipitation, evaporation and snow melting. An estimate shows that currently almost one-third of the world's population consumes less than 1000m3 water per year.


Fresh water crisis has already created conflicts in the African region. Rainfall in the Darfur region of the Sudan has declined by almost 40% over the last century, creating violent clashes for water between nomadic herders and agrarian farmers.

In South Asia also, glaciers may retreat from the Himalayans because of global warming, thus affecting freshwater availability in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan.


Moreover, sea level rise may increase salinity in fresh-water bodies and adjacent agricultural fields, thus resulting in unproductivity. Though Bangladesh gets enough precipitation in the monsoon, often causing flood, we have limited water for farming in the dry season. Control of Ganges water in the dry season has caused political tension between Bangladesh and India.


Climate induced coastal hazards lead to migration of the vulnerable people to better parts of the country. We already have 4 million environmental refugees from river erosion.


Scientists predict that, because of increased tropical cyclones and salinisation of the farming lands in coastal areas, environmental refugees will exceed 20 million in future. As a result, their demand for land, water, employment and other social services may trigger conflict with the local residents.


Moreover, migration creates conflicts between neighbouring countries. The Indian government has already announced that it will build a barbed wire fence along its border with Bangladesh to prevent the influx of environmental migrants during sea level rise. This may unsettle the political co-existence with Bangladesh.


According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), extreme weather events cause more than 1,60,000 deaths annually. Climate change is also likely to enhance the spreading of vector borne diseases like malaria, diarrhoea and AIDS.


It is true that climate change will amplify security problems in developing countries. Poor governance, weak economy and absence of social cohesion may also overstretch their socio-ecological vulnerability.


The work of Nobel laureate Al Gore makes it clear that today's global warming is not merely an environmental problem, rather it has become a global issue. Unfortunately, we see very little internationally coordinated effort to reduce climate change impacts. The UN can establish more collaboration between scientists, politicians and businesspersons for an effective climate change policy to safeguard the earth's security.


Bangladesh, as a disaster-prone country, faces security implications from climate change. In this regard, the climate change issue should be included in the development plan of the country. Bangladesh can also draw attention of the world community in climate change conferences to take financial initiatives and share technology for adaptation.


Ironically, despite the depressing effects, climate change offers humanity an opportunity for a quantum leap in sustainable development and peace making. For instance, Bangladesh can collaborate with the India for reducing trans-boundary environmental hazards. Both can establish a jointly managed conservation zone (i.e., Peace Park) for the Ganges delta, which will also raise the level of trust between them and contribute to overall stability in the region.


We have little chance to win the climate war, unless concerted efforts are made. Margaret Beckett said in the UN Security Council (April 2007): "Climate change can bring us together, if we have the wisdom to prevent it from driving us apart."